A new Times/Siena poll found Trump +6 among likely voters. See the poll›
Who’s leading the polls?
National polling average
July 6 ↓
Biden Biden 44%
Trump Trump 47%
Jonathan EllisDeputy editor, The Upshot
Donald J. Trump’s lead over President Biden in national polls has widened since their debate last week. Before the debate, Trump’s lead in our national polling average was one percentage point; now, with the latest New York Times/Siena College poll included in the average, it’s three points. Updated July 5
Explore Electoral College scenarios
A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win. If Biden and Trump can hold the states they carried by at least three percentage points in 2020, that leaves seven states that are widely viewed as the key battlegrounds. Let’s zoom in on them.
Biden 226
Trump 312
10
Wis.
<1
15
Mich.
+2
19
Pa.
+3
6
Nev.
+4
11
Ariz.
+4
16
Ga.
+5
16
N.C.
+5
270
If the polls change, or miss, in Biden’s favor
Biden is also within range: He trails by a slim margin in a few key states, and a shift or polling miss in his favor would not be uncommon, though of course that is not guaranteed.
Biden 270
Trump 268
10
Wis.
15
Mich.
19
Pa.
6
Nev.
11
Ariz.
16
Ga.
16
N.C.
270
Biden is within 3 points of the lead in these states.
Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling
A few recent polls in traditionally Democratic states have drawn some attention. A Fox News poll had Biden and Trump tied in Virginia — a state Biden won by 10 points in 2020 — and a poll in Minnesota showed the reliably Democratic state as potentially competitive. We will add more state averages as more data is reported. Updated June 24
How wrong might the polls be?
It’s normal for polls not to match the final results, sometimes by considerable amounts. The ranges in this chart represent the magnitude of each state’s biggest polling miss in recent elections, shown in relation to the current polling averages.
| Biggestrecent polling miss | ||
|---|---|---|
| Wis. | 9 pts.(2020) | Range of polling miss |
| Mich. | 6 pts.(2022) | |
| Pa. | 5 pts.(2022) | |
| Nev. | 4 pts.(2012) | |
| Ariz. | 3 pts.(2022) | |
| Ga. | 2 pts.(2016) | |
| N.C. | 6 pts.(2016) |
Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling
In 2016 and 2020, the polls underestimated Trump. But in 2012 they underestimated the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, and in 2022 Democrats outperformed polling averages in several key midterm races. Past polling misses can give a sense of the magnitude by which current averages could be wrong, but they are not a guarantee of which way today’s polls may be off.
The latest polls
Every poll here influences the averages above. Polls from “select pollsters,” which meet certain criteria for reliability, count for more. You can filter by state, toggle to show only select pollsters, and choose head-to-head or three-way matchups.
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Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling
Polls by “select pollsters” are shown with a diamond. These pollsters have backgrounds that tend to mean they are more reliable. Also, polls that were conducted by or for partisan organizations are labeled, as they often release only results that are favorable to their cause.
How the averages have changed
Arrows to the left indicate polling gains for Biden; to the right, for Trump.
| Current margin | polls | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | Trump +3 | 14 | |
| Wis. | Trump <1 | 1 | |
| Mich. | Trump +2 | 1 | |
| Pa. | Trump +3 | 1 | |
| Nev. | Trump +4 | 2 | |
| Ariz. | Trump +4 | 1 | |
| Ga. | Trump +5 | 1 | |
| N.C. | Trump +5 | 1 |
Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling
After the debate, polls have shown Trump gaining ground nationally. We don’t yet have enough post-debate polling in swing states to reliably gauge how things have changed in key battlegrounds. Updated July 3
Measuring the Kennedy effect
We calculate averages for polls that ask voters to choose between Biden and Trump, and for polls that include Kennedy. (Many polls do both.) Here’s a comparison of the averages, nationally and in key states.
With Kennedy +4 Trump Trump
+3 Trump Trump
William P. DavisDirector, Election Data Analytics
Third-party candidates present particular challenges for pollsters, and they can be a significant factor in elections. Here you can get a sense of how Robert F. Kennedy Jr. might affect support for Biden and Trump. Just know that, historically, most polls have significantly overstated support for third-party candidates.
About our polling averages
Our averages include polls collected by The New York Times and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll represents likely voters, and whether other polls have shifted since a poll was conducted.
We also evaluate whether each pollster: Has a track record of accuracy in recent electionsIs a member of a professional polling organizationConducts probability-based sampling
These elements factor into how much weight each poll gets in the average. And we consider pollsters that meet at least two of the three criteria to be “select pollsters,” so long as they are conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors. Read more about our methodology.
The Times conducts its own national and state polls in partnership with Siena College. Those polls are included in the averages. Follow Times/Siena polling here.
Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.
Credits
By Cam Baker, Nate Cohn, Molly Cook Escobar, Annie Daniel, Ruth Igielnik, Jasmine C. Lee, Alex Lemonides, Albert Sun, Rumsey Taylor and Isaac White. Additional work by Kristen Bayrakdarian, Asmaa Elkeurti, Andrew Fischer, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jaymin Patel, Ethan Singer and James Thomas.
